ROYAL ASCOT: SATURDAY 23rd JUNE 2012. IT'S AUSTRALIA DAY TODAY,FOR SURE

The Aussies are raiding Royal Ascot and it is going to their day today, for sure.

The 'Wonder Mare from Down Under' BLACK CAVIAR is the star attraction today and it will be a very different atmosphere, than usual.

Those lads(and lasses) know how to have a good time and I expect there will be the odd one like my little mate above, sleeping it off, to be found somewhere.

The interest that the unbeaten Black Caviar has generated has been amazing and after Frankel got the meeting off to a flying start it's her turn to take centre stage.

She runs in the 3.45 Diamond Jubilee Stakes and will surely pick this lot up at any stage she likes, winning in a hack canter. Under three lengths is my guess, but that won't hide her superiority.

The place will erupt and I should imagine it will be a long time in subsiding.

We will see something special on a day where not just the supermare brings an antipodean feel to it.

The 3.05 Hardwicke Stakes contains the 1-2 from last year's Melbourne Cup and they will prove popular with the travelling hordes. The winner that day Dunaden will go close, but I fancy the second RED CADEAUX more. He was just touched off in that race and with this shorter distance in his favour, I think he may just prevail. He caught my eye staying on behind easy winner St. Nicholas Abbey at Epsom last time and this stiffer track will suit. He could be still improving and on a line through St Nick, has just as good a chance as favourite Sea Moon, yet is three times the price. Had a bit on at 9's each way with Ladbrokes and he will go well.

The 4.25 Wokingham Stakes is a massive field dash and the one I really like is MEDICEAN MAN. This one is trained by, would you believe, an Australian Jeremy Gask and those chaps know how to handle a sprinter. This one ran a blinder in Tuesday's Group 1 King's Stand finishing a close up fourth. A quick reappearance and an extra furlong could even bring about improvement, he will run well at around 14-1. His form with the highly progressive Mirza looks exceptional and I am sure the Aussies will be having a go at this one too.

His stablemate High Standing wouldn't be a total rag either and can go well for Mr Gask.

I really like the chances of those two above and I'm sure it's just a pure coincidence there are Aussie connections, but if you read an old blog of mine CHOISIR, SIR BOB & PLANT POTS you'll see it does work in mysterious ways.

The reception Black Caviar will receive if and when she wins will be something else, and it's going to be a long day for some of the Aussie boys. They had an early start with the Rugby and are going to be partying long into the night.

I have had a couple of each ways with The Cheka and Es Que Love who are both huge prices and should go well, but in all reality I just want to see Black Caviar put up an imperious display. She Will.

There will be plenty of caviar eaten by the toffs at Ascot today, but like those down to earth Aussie blokes I'm more of a cod roe man myself.

Happy late Australia Day.

Randy

ROYAL ASCOT: FRIDAY 22nd JUNE 2012. YOU NEED ASTROLOGY IN THIS GAME

Yesterday was a case of nearly so, firstly I put Wednesday instead of Thursday in the title, always proof read your blog, the lesson learned.

I fancied Godolphin to win a race they have a great record in, sadly I picked the race before they actually did it.

I fancied a Frankie flying leap at some stage, he duly obliged on the biggest stage, unbacked!

The final kick in teeth came when I fancied a William Haggas horse in the Hunt Cup, who had good form on Kempton's polytrack and would go close. He did, finishing 6th, however the winner was a William Haggas horse who had good form on Kempton's polytrack and bolted up, again unbacked.

Crystal ball was definitely a bit misty yesterday.

Anyway looking in the stars today ASTROLOGY must be worth a good bet. He was a gallant third in the Epsom Derby behind brilliant stablemate Camelot, and on that form looks sure to run well in the 3.05 King Edward VII Stakes.

He has to prove he stays this distance, but his performance on soft ground in Chester's Dee Stakes over a furlong and half shorter looked as if it would be no problem. If jockey Ryan Moore can hold onto him a bit longer and commit later I am sure he will win this. He looked the second best horse in the Derby and though this stiffer test will suit Derby fourth Thought Worthy better, he was readily brushed aside that day.

Shantaram could surprise as he is proven on soft ground and over the distance. He was just touched off by Derby third Main Sequence in the Lingfield Derby trial and can give Astrology most to do.

GATEWOOD really caught the eye last time at Epsom, travelling and winning as if he is potentially top class. If handling today's softer ground he can go really close in the 4.25 Wolferton Handicap.

With the Germans taking on Greece in the second Euro Quarter Final tonight and the winner awaiting England if they can get past the Italians, I am sure most people will be honorary Greeks tonight.

Athens would be a nice coincidence bet in the 5.00 Queen's Vase and should go close on the soft ground, however he was disappointing last time.

The clue for this race is in the title, and the one I like is Sir Michael Stoute's ESTIMATE. She is owned by The Queen and I am sure the trainer would like to give the old girl her own vase back, she did afterall give him a knighthood!

ESTIMATE though does have a really good chance, she won really well at Sandown last time on softish ground. That track is stiff enough and she looks as if this step up to two miles will really suit. Soft ground won't be a problem either as she is by Monsun and I can see her going really well, especially as she gets an nice 3lb allowance.

A nice treble today, will hopefully cheer me up before we see something really special tomorrow.

Happy punting

Randy

ROYAL ASCOT: THURSDAY 21st JUNE 2012. MORE GOLD FAME FOR GLORY

I was lucky to postioned perfectly up the rail at Epsom a couple of years ago and caught this snap of a watchful Aidan O'Brien casting an eye over FAME AND GLORY going down to the start of the Coronation. He duly done the business and has developed into one of my favourite horses.

He goes again today in The Gold Cup and even though there has been a lot of doubters this year, I see no reason to desert him. I have read that this race may be a stiffer test of stamina than last year and there are still doubts about him staying as well. The challengers are stronger and will be ridden to test the favourite.

However, there was a bigger field last year and he absolutely bolted up, looking high class all the way round. A smaller field today will suit even more and he holds most of his rivals on the form in the book, so looks a good bet to confirm that form.

I am hoping money comes for the others and his price drifts out to a nice bit of 6-4. I will be surprised if he is beaten and really hope he goes onto to win this for a second year running.

Of the others Colour Vision's form doesn't look good enough, I'm not sure Saddlers Rock will relish this stamina sapping trip and Opinion Poll has been soundly beaten more than once. The rest don't look good enough.

Expect FAME AND GLORY to prove the apple of his trainer's eye again.

As for yesterday, I thought Farhh ran a cracker to be placed and may have been really unlucky as he didn't get a great start but stayed on strongly for my place bet. There is a lot more to come from that horse.

Joviality landed a tidy punt and she was put up from my eyecatchers from Epsom;

http://horseracingtavern/2012/06/epsom-derby-2012-review-eyecatchers-tips/

Another of those goes today in the Ribbledsale at 3.05 and KAILANI must have a little each way chance back on this more conventional track after finishing down the field in the Epsom Oaks. She has to improve to turn the form around with a lot of these but the Godolphin stable have a great record in this. Five winners in the past and a couple of places mean their best fillies come here and my confidence will grow if the rain keeps coming, as she does prefer a bit of ease in the ground.

The rest of the card looks terribly hard and the Britannia Stakes at 4.25 is another one mile cavalry charge. KAHRUMAN looks sure to run well despite top weight and looks unexposed enough to be still improving. Ran well in Listed company last time and did win a Kempton maiden on the polytrack the time before, that normally indicates they'll like Ascot's terrain. His trainer William Haggas has two seconds yesterday and this one can go close today. His biggest danger may be Irish raider Piri Wango, with Frankie Dettori an eyecatching booking. We need to see that flying dismount at some stage this week!

Anyway thats enough for now, happy punting and good luck.

Randy.

ROYAL ASCOT; WEDNESDAY 20th JUNE 2012. FRANKIE'S TURN

Well Frankel delivered in some style yesterday and all the superlatives heaped on him are truly justified. The highest rating given to a flat horse and we did indeed something special. A true champion, and he will go on to be one of the legends of the sport, mentioned in the same breath as all the greats.

Another legend though has been finding it tough recently and folllowing yesterday's special happenings he will be determined to get his name back up in lights.

Frankie Dettori and Royal Ascot go together like peaches and cream and the thought of him having no winners does seem unbelievable. His nose has been put out of joint by his boss, Sheikh Mohammed using the younger jockeys more frequently and he will be determined to show everyone that famous flying leap once more.

Today he rides FARHH in the 3.45 Prince of Wales Stakes and I think he's got a lively chance. He has to improve massively on what he's shown so far as he was only winning handicaps up to now, but I think there is improvement to come. He has the top notch So You Think and The Queen's Carlton House to beat, but looks worth a decent each way punt.

Frankie reeled in So You Think in last year's race onboard the sadly departed Rewilding and I think he'll be trying to execute the same thing today. Carlton House seems a bit fragile to me and may not back up his recent win, though he is top class.

A lot of the others prefer softer ground and this unbeaten 4 year old may shock a few here today. I know he's fancied as he's around 8-1 and has been nibbled at.

After yestrday's poor punting day today's races look twice as hard and the big fields look unfathomable.

JOVIALITY however in the 3.05 Windsor Forest caught my eye at Epsom last time where she ran 2nd to Clinical despite hating that rollercoater track. Expect her to turn that form around today and is a good each way price. She ran 6th in last year's Group 1 Coronation Stakes not beaten far. The drying gound will suit and I can see her  running a big race.

The Royal Hunt Cup at 4.25 is a mile long cavalry charge and is devilishly hard, but one at 18-1 at Corals catches the eye. MULL OF KILLOUGH was just touched off in the Lincoln at Doncaster and proved a big field straight mile suits. He was disappointing last time on soft ground, but back on better ground and after a little break can go well here. Another each way poke.

An each way patent on the above three looks a good shout. Thats three each way singles, three each way doubles and an each way treble if your not sure.

Hopefully we can recoup yesterday's losses.

As for the Euro's, you have to start believing, England CAN win this tournament. My 15-1 Betfred voucher keeps telling me so.

Happy punting

Randy.

ROYAL ASCOT; TUESDAY 19th JUNE 2012. GET READY TO WITNESS SOMETHING SPECIAL!

I managed to snare this picture back in 2010 of a young two-year-old colt who simply demolished his rivals in The Royal Lodge at Ascot. I knew then he was a decent animal, but little did I realise what I had seen that day. Fast forward nearly two years and that magnificent beast finishing his race in splendid isolation is the mighty and undefeated Frankel.

The greatest five days of flat racing anywhere in the world kicks off with The Queen Anne Stakes and what better way to launch the high class action with a top notch Group 1 race featuring the best horse in the world. All the words bandied about in the press, on-line, on the news and everywhere else cannot do this horse any real justice.

Sadly due to other less interesting commitments I cannot make it to Royal Ascot today to soak up the atmosphere, anticipation and then sheer joy to watch a real champion. Everyone lucky enough to be at the course WILL witness something special as Frankel will surely win with great authority.

He is "The Undisputed Heavyweight Champion of The World" and will blast away his opponents and land his 11th straight victory, but at deserved ridiculously short odds is a no bet. The problem with trying to find an each way bet is you may be interested in other events instead of just enjoying a master at work. I would rather watch Frankel put in an awesome performance than be casting my eye back to the rest of the field fighting for scraps and trying to nick a place.

His nearest rival Excelebration is a top class Group 1 winning animal in his own right and in any other era would probably be the best horse around, but he has been firmly put in his place no less than four times by "The Champ". He has been beaten by a combined total of over fifteen lengths, including last time in the Lockinge at Newbury by an easy looking five. It is frightening to think that Frankel will come on for that run.

What made that performance even more impressive was the fact Frankel had an injury scare prior to the race, had missed some work and was meeting his rival who had the benefit of a previous run. He handed him a thorough beating and Aidan O'Brien's colt must be sick of the sight of his nemesis. His heart will sink once he eye-balls the mighty one in the parade ring, at the start or even in the race. He looks booked for second and is the safe and predictable each way punt, but the value is drying up. If he doesn't fancy it there could be a bit of value elsewhere if you have to have a punt.

Strong Suit is a two time Royal Ascot winner but is making his seasonal debut here. He also has to prove he stays a mile and on softish ground on this stiff track it may be just asking a bit too much. He will run well, but will surely come on for the run. His class though will probably see him into third place.

Worthadd likes to run up near the pace, but will get swallowed up once the big guns get going late on.

Side Glance has decent Ascot form, but doesn't look good enough.

Bullet Train and Windsor Castle are the pacemakers and will give way once their jobs are done.

The Mahmood Al Zarooni trained ex-Aussie Helmet looks interesting at a huge price and though he hasn't shown much this year, is a three time Group 1 winner back in his native homeland.Any ground seems to suit as does the mile trip and he may surprise a few as his owner Sheik Mohammed has landed this race many times in the past. Even Aidan O'Brien has collected this prize in the past with an Australian import Haradasun. He can't win, but may be a bit of value especially if Excelebration or Strong Suit underperform, highly unlikely, but worth a second glance.

The rest surely don't look good enough and to be honest, just watch the race and take in a once in a lifetime peformer, who is rightly being lauded as the best in the world by some distance. The perfect curtain raiser to some of the finest horseracing you will want to see.

There is however some value to be had in the other races and I like the look of SPIRIT QUARTZ in the Group 1 King's Stand at 2.30. This race is going to be a total lottery as there will be over 20 runners going lickety-spit over the minimum distance of 5 furlongs. My selection will need luck in running, but is a Group 3 winner in Italy over 6 furlongs on ground with cut. He seems a consistent sort and travels well in his races. He has caught the eye a couple of times this season including last time when just touched off at Haydock carrying a big weight.

He also ran well in the Temple Stakes at Haydock when a few lengths behind the well fancied Bated Breath. He has ground to make up on that one, but can surely get closer to him on this stiffer track. He is also nearly five times the price too and the booking of Frankie Dettori, who rides Ascot better than most is another positive. Looks cracking value at around 25-1. His trainer Robert Cowell won this race last year with Prohibit and that one one can go well too, he could be worth a saver at around 16-1.

The next race is the St. James Palace Stakes and there is another one who really grabs my attention. BORN TO SEA is hardly an original choice, but I can't believe he is still trading at around the 10-1 mark. Frankel has taken over the mantle, but Born to Sea's older half brother Sea The Stars was just as exciting, winning all the top races from the 2000 Guineas to The Arc, via The Epsom Derby in a vintage year back in 2009.

Now Born To Sea is nowhere in that league, but he is slowly getting the hang of things and looks as if this race will finally see him land a big pot. He looked above average as a juvenile, before disappointing on his last run as a 2-year-old. He was found to be lame and is surely being nursed along this year for a second half of the season campaign.

His first run this year in the 2000 Guineas was disappointing but he did finish well clear of today's favourite Power in that contest. Power turned the form around in the Irish 2000 guineas, but Born To Sea's run was very eyecatching. He had first time headgear on that day and seemed to be travelling sweetly before coming home in fine fashion to be a never dangerous fifth.

He was ridden by Kevin Manning then, but is re-united with the excellent Johnny Murtagh, who has ridden the colt in all his other runs and knows him well. It is interesting John Oxx his trainer sends him over for this and there aren't many better riders of Ascot than Mr.Murtagh. I really like his chances of improving again from that run and finishing in front of Power this time. He is certainly a value each way punt and I reckon his price will shorten all day.

The rest of the card doesn't really interest me for betting purposes but from my Epsom eyecatchers

http://horseracingtavern.com/2012/06/epsom-derby-2012-review-eyecatchers-tips/

HEAVY METAL in the 4.25 Coventry Stakes is worth a second look at a massive price. He was somewhat unlucky at Epsom and this is a huge step up in grade. He is a hardened and tough type though, from the Mark Johnston yard and will be battling on when a few have cried enough. He might lack the class of the O'Brien, Bolger and Hannon horses, but will run well.

Hopefully once we have witnessed the Frankel procession we can settle down, enjoy the races and make a profit.

Good luck and Happy Punting.

Randy.

INVESTEC DERBY DAY;Saturday 2nd June 2012

Well that went pretty well, yesterday. I am just recovering now. Missed the Morning Line, so don't know what all the goss is, so am a bit blind.

Will be at a wedding at the out-laws and might not even get to see the racing today, but will be having my twitter on at the back of the church to keep me informed.

Today we could see something special and in Camelot we could be seeing a star. He will probably bolt up but to me is way too short a price for me to be backing. I know a few people who have fancy prices at 20s and so on, who think its in the bag, but is it that simple?

Here's my thoughts, for what its worth and I reckon its worth taking on Camelot with his stablemate Astrology.The fact that Aiden O'Brien runs this one after taking out all his other runners means he should not be underestimated. He surely cannot be running him as a pacemaker as he would have left one of the rags in to blast off in front.I am coming round to thinking that they fancy this one.
He is by Galilieo so will appreciate this trip and better ground and though he has to improve I am sure he will. He won easily last time despite soft ground and will come on a ton for that run. He is definitely the each way value against the hotpot and though  I would love to see Camelot go and be a worldbeater, I just have a little doubt. He won the 2000 guineas, but not in as taking fashion as you would like to see in an odds on shot here. He will probably win but is definitely no value.

Take Astrology to emulate his dad and nick one back from Camelot's dad Montjeu, who has been the daddy in the race in recent years.

The Epsom Dash is a real spectacle and a speculative punt is Stone Of Folca. He goes well really fresh, likes 5 furlongs on fast ground and is trained by a man who knows how to handle top notch sprinters. Backed him at 33s earlier in the week so hopefully he can nick a place.

Anyway, got to go have to polish my shoes.

Go on Astrology spoil the party, I've seen it in the stars.

Yours

Randy

INVESTEC OAKS DAY; Friday 1st June 2012.

Pinch, Punch it's the first of the month, but it's the goings on at Epsom that will be first in my thoughts today. Two of the best day's racing of the year are run at my local track today and tomorrow and if I can ease my workload, will definitely be diving up there this afternoon for a looksie.

It's always difficult to persuade the wife, it's all professional, especially as my annual visit coincides with Ladies Day, but this year it is.

One client is in the Marquee on Tattenham Corner and I provide them with my view on each race, a sort of mark your card for them to follow and hopefully we can nail a few winners too. Have managed to make a profit for them for the last three years so this year the pressure  really is on, but am sure I'll be blagging a few beers off them later.

Another oppurtunity has arisen to provide some notes and thoughts on the eyecatchers at the meeting and again I assure you it's not the ladies, that they are after. What's going to win next time is the aim and hopefully I can make a note of some future profitable punts for the likes of Royal Ascot. 

Finding winners lately has been a bit of a task and at Epsom it's no easier, but it's all part of the challenge to test your mettle and much more rewarding, when you do nail one or two.
Epsom is a unique test and not every horse will act around this idiosynchratic track, as it's all about being balanced and having the right blend of speed and stamina.
It's always good to look for animals that have performed well around here before and are targeted at certain races again. Form around similar tracks like Brighton and Lingfield is no bad thing either.

So here goes, here's the rundown of what the boys in the tent will be getting. I'll be lauded or in hiding come the end of the day.

1.40 Princess Elizabeth Stakes Group 3 Fillies & Mares 1m 1/2 f

Very difficult start to the day but the one I like is CLINICAL, she was 3rd in this race last year and looks like she has been aimed at it again. Had some great form last season but looked a big baby to me, sure to have strenghtened up over the winter and the fact connections kept her in training as a 4-year-old is interesting. She won a Listed race last year and could have been packed off to the paddocks. Trainer's horses are running well too and if one man can lay a horse out after a long break to win it's Sir Mark Prescott. Each way claim.

2.15 Investec Wealth and Investment Handicap 1m 2f

With Kieren Fallon making the effort to ride at near his lowest riding weight it's always worth a look at his mount. BORUG ran really well last year without winning and has had three runs already this year without success. However his last run caught the eye when a staying on sixth of twenty at Newmarket and if kept a bit handier this time can keep on late for a place at the very least. Has cheekpieces back on and with Fallon booked, who rides Epsom well, all looks in place for a big run. Resurge won this race last year and should go well again, but I do like Borug.

2.50 Investec Diomed Stakes Group 3 1m 1/2f

Old boy Mac Love is a favourite of mine as he landed this at 14-1 in 2009 and was tipped up too, however at 11 must be on the wain. Favourite Worthadd will be tough to beat, but the one I will be having a punt on is DANCE AND DANCE. He won a handicap over course and distance here last season and looks sure to go close to landing this prize despite the rise in grade. Has had a couple of runs this season and looks ready to strike, the fact Ryan Moore has been booked is eyecatching too as he has ridden Marcret the last twice, but jumps on the selection here. Could still be improving and with course form will run well again, giving the favourite most to do. Will back him each way and in a forecast with the favourite.

3.25 Investec Mile Handicap 1m 1/2f

Again Kieren Fallon is riding off a low weight and Prince Jock shouldn't be ignored, but the one I really like is HIGHLAND KNIGHT. Was second in this very race last year so we know he handles the course no problem and looks as if he's been laid out to go close again. Backed him for the Spring Cup but he didn't like the soft ground and a return to better ground can see him improve from that run and must have a great chance of hitting the frame again. His biggest danger could be his owner's other horse Norse Blues, who has won around Epsom before and is worth a little saver, with man of the moment James Doyle booked.

4.05 Investec Oaks Group 1 1m 4f

The highlight of the day and I think the winner will come from the Lingfield Oaks Trial run last month. The winner that day VOW won really well despite running as green as grass and will have come on a ton for that run. She may have problems coping with this track but looks really high class to me and with Johnny Murtagh onboard will go close. He rides Epsom better than most, and if he can settle Vow early doors, her proven stamina and turn of foot will see her bolt up.She has to improve to trouble some of her rivals, but I have doubts about most of them. Maybe may have problems staying this far, The Fugue's form has a few holes in it and Kissed may not like the good ground. The biggest danger and each way play has to be COLIMA. She was second to Vow at Lingfield in that trial, which is always a good indicator for this race. She caught my eye travelling really well and stayed on strongly when jockey Jim Crowley asked her to get involved. She has a very similar profile to Ralph Beckett's Look Here who was second in the same race and went on to win this one. Sure to stay this trip, will hopefully improve for tackling better ground and has a jockey oboard who rides Epsom really well. Hopefully these two will battle it out, with Kailani staying on late for third.

4.50 Investec Surrey Stakes Listed Race 7f

You have to respect a three time course and distance winner and thats exactly what PRODUCER is. Rattled up a hat-trick here last year and looks cherry ripe to land this prize with a run under his belt. Ran over two furlongs further in a Listed race at Newmarket(form working out well) last time, the drop back to 7f is sure to benefit and a better showing is expected. Has to improve on figures and Fallen For You must be a danger, but this one's profile screams plot-up job and course form is worth it's weight in gold around here. Should go close.

5.25 Investec Asset Management Handicap 7f

The getting out of jail stakes and if I haven't nailed a winner or two, will be long gone before the lynch mob catch up with me. However have to have a poke as it's all part of the fun. A devilishly difficult race and my best advice would be keep your winnings in your pocket, but if you have to have a punt MY SHARONA might be worth a tiny bit on each way. She has only a 7 furlong good to firm win to her name and thats what she'll get here. Has to improve on all ratings but caught my eye running behind a winning punt at Epsom last month.That race was a poor handicap on soft ground over a longer trip than this but she gave the winner that day a load of weight. However she showed a good attitude once headed to cling on for second place and the drop back in trip on better ground will surely help.  As I said before, course form!

Anyway there you have it, hopefully a tidy profit to play up tomorrow on Derby Day.

Good luck and happy punting.

Randy.