Pinch, Punch it's the first of the month, but it's the goings on at Epsom that will be first in my thoughts today. Two of the best day's racing of the year are run at my local track today and tomorrow and if I can ease my workload, will definitely be diving up there this afternoon for a looksie.
It's always difficult to persuade the wife, it's all professional, especially as my annual visit coincides with Ladies Day, but this year it is.
One client is in the Marquee on Tattenham Corner and I provide them with my view on each race, a sort of mark your card for them to follow and hopefully we can nail a few winners too. Have managed to make a profit for them for the last three years so this year the pressure really is on, but am sure I'll be blagging a few beers off them later.
Another oppurtunity has arisen to provide some notes and thoughts on the eyecatchers at the meeting and again I assure you it's not the ladies, that they are after. What's going to win next time is the aim and hopefully I can make a note of some future profitable punts for the likes of Royal Ascot.
Finding winners lately has been a bit of a task and at Epsom it's no easier, but it's all part of the challenge to test your mettle and much more rewarding, when you do nail one or two.
Epsom is a unique test and not every horse will act around this idiosynchratic track, as it's all about being balanced and having the right blend of speed and stamina.
It's always good to look for animals that have performed well around here before and are targeted at certain races again. Form around similar tracks like Brighton and Lingfield is no bad thing either.
So here goes, here's the rundown of what the boys in the tent will be getting. I'll be lauded or in hiding come the end of the day.
1.40 Princess Elizabeth Stakes Group 3 Fillies & Mares 1m 1/2 f
Very difficult start to the day but the one I like is CLINICAL, she was 3rd in this race last year and looks like she has been aimed at it again. Had some great form last season but looked a big baby to me, sure to have strenghtened up over the winter and the fact connections kept her in training as a 4-year-old is interesting. She won a Listed race last year and could have been packed off to the paddocks. Trainer's horses are running well too and if one man can lay a horse out after a long break to win it's Sir Mark Prescott. Each way claim.
2.15 Investec Wealth and Investment Handicap 1m 2f
With Kieren Fallon making the effort to ride at near his lowest riding weight it's always worth a look at his mount. BORUG ran really well last year without winning and has had three runs already this year without success. However his last run caught the eye when a staying on sixth of twenty at Newmarket and if kept a bit handier this time can keep on late for a place at the very least. Has cheekpieces back on and with Fallon booked, who rides Epsom well, all looks in place for a big run. Resurge won this race last year and should go well again, but I do like Borug.
2.50 Investec Diomed Stakes Group 3 1m 1/2f
Old boy Mac Love is a favourite of mine as he landed this at 14-1 in 2009 and was tipped up too, however at 11 must be on the wain. Favourite Worthadd will be tough to beat, but the one I will be having a punt on is DANCE AND DANCE. He won a handicap over course and distance here last season and looks sure to go close to landing this prize despite the rise in grade. Has had a couple of runs this season and looks ready to strike, the fact Ryan Moore has been booked is eyecatching too as he has ridden Marcret the last twice, but jumps on the selection here. Could still be improving and with course form will run well again, giving the favourite most to do. Will back him each way and in a forecast with the favourite.
3.25 Investec Mile Handicap 1m 1/2f
Again Kieren Fallon is riding off a low weight and Prince Jock shouldn't be ignored, but the one I really like is HIGHLAND KNIGHT. Was second in this very race last year so we know he handles the course no problem and looks as if he's been laid out to go close again. Backed him for the Spring Cup but he didn't like the soft ground and a return to better ground can see him improve from that run and must have a great chance of hitting the frame again. His biggest danger could be his owner's other horse Norse Blues, who has won around Epsom before and is worth a little saver, with man of the moment James Doyle booked.
4.05 Investec Oaks Group 1 1m 4f
The highlight of the day and I think the winner will come from the Lingfield Oaks Trial run last month. The winner that day VOW won really well despite running as green as grass and will have come on a ton for that run. She may have problems coping with this track but looks really high class to me and with Johnny Murtagh onboard will go close. He rides Epsom better than most, and if he can settle Vow early doors, her proven stamina and turn of foot will see her bolt up.She has to improve to trouble some of her rivals, but I have doubts about most of them. Maybe may have problems staying this far, The Fugue's form has a few holes in it and Kissed may not like the good ground. The biggest danger and each way play has to be COLIMA. She was second to Vow at Lingfield in that trial, which is always a good indicator for this race. She caught my eye travelling really well and stayed on strongly when jockey Jim Crowley asked her to get involved. She has a very similar profile to Ralph Beckett's Look Here who was second in the same race and went on to win this one. Sure to stay this trip, will hopefully improve for tackling better ground and has a jockey oboard who rides Epsom really well. Hopefully these two will battle it out, with Kailani staying on late for third.
4.50 Investec Surrey Stakes Listed Race 7f
You have to respect a three time course and distance winner and thats exactly what PRODUCER is. Rattled up a hat-trick here last year and looks cherry ripe to land this prize with a run under his belt. Ran over two furlongs further in a Listed race at Newmarket(form working out well) last time, the drop back to 7f is sure to benefit and a better showing is expected. Has to improve on figures and Fallen For You must be a danger, but this one's profile screams plot-up job and course form is worth it's weight in gold around here. Should go close.
5.25 Investec Asset Management Handicap 7f
The getting out of jail stakes and if I haven't nailed a winner or two, will be long gone before the lynch mob catch up with me. However have to have a poke as it's all part of the fun. A devilishly difficult race and my best advice would be keep your winnings in your pocket, but if you have to have a punt MY SHARONA might be worth a tiny bit on each way. She has only a 7 furlong good to firm win to her name and thats what she'll get here. Has to improve on all ratings but caught my eye running behind a winning punt at Epsom last month.That race was a poor handicap on soft ground over a longer trip than this but she gave the winner that day a load of weight. However she showed a good attitude once headed to cling on for second place and the drop back in trip on better ground will surely help. As I said before, course form!
Anyway there you have it, hopefully a tidy profit to play up tomorrow on Derby Day.
Good luck and happy punting.
Randy.
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