Showing posts with label Hurricane Fly. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hurricane Fly. Show all posts

Monday, 12 March 2012

FESTIVAL FEVER REACHES FEVER PITCH!

There is only sometimes of the year when whatever your bag is takes over all rational thoughts in your mind and mine is here. I know that to many The Cheltenham Festival means absolutely nothing, but a quarter of million punters will make their way to the natural amphitheatre in The Cotswolds, Gloucestershire, that is Cheltenham racecourse.

Ever since I made my first visit in 1998 I have made it a point to get back there for at least one day of the festival, to enjoy a day's racing that I don't believe is equalled anywhere else in the world. I am sure even The Melbourne Cup in November, the race that stops a nation, would be hard pushed to rival this gig for atmosphere.

Much to the detriment to the rest of the national hunt season all roads lead to these magical four days and I for one am good for nothing during this week except trying to earn my weeks wages by punting my way through the devilishly hard races. However more often than not I have just about survived with wallet, marriage and liver intact and if that happens this year, I will take it now.

I would suggest to anyone who has never attended a day at this special meeting is to do it at least once, the atmosphere, the noise, the entertainment is second to none. These four days are truly the equine Olympics and every owner, trainer, jockey, stable lad or lass goes there with the sole wish to end up in the hallowed winner's enclosure. That's what makes this meeting great for a punter, you know anything you back, no matter at what odds, is busting a gut to gain immortality as a Cheltenham Festival winner.

The thousands of Irishmen who make their annual pilgrimage here only add to the mix and when the tapes go up on Tuesday at about 1.30pm to signal the start of the Supreme Novice Hurdle, the roar may even be heard back in their homeland. Without them it just wouldn't be the same, must have Irish blood in my pedigree somewhere!

I will be there to experience this and it will be great to meet up with old friends and have the "craic."


This year see's the inaugural running of The Olbg sponsored Mare's race and well done to Olbg.com for backing a race here. I was lucky enough to land their Cheltenham tipster challenge in 2011 and a more than handy £500 came my way, which was much appreciated.
Anyone can enter the tipping challenge and have a crack at it, it's all free. Check them out on twitter at @Olbg or http://www.olbg.com and register, it's easy.

My list of ante-post bets is as long as my arm and some are great, some are good, some are bad and some are in the bin already, but there is definitely some big wins in there I am sure.
Check them out on http://goo.gl/fsLNa.

For what it's worth here's a few golden rules I stick too and that I try my best to follow, it will help you survive, what can be a marathon nightmare, if you lose your discipline.

1. Don't listen to hype. The rumours that fly around are normally Chinese Whispers from people who have heard it third or fourth hand.Back your own judgement and don't change your mind.
2.Back more than one in a race, if you land a winner at this meeting you will be doing well and sometimes there is value to be had with a couple, at decent odds running for you.
3.Don't punt in every race, you need to survive for four days and if you chase too hard too early it could be game over. As the great Kenny Rogers once sang " You gotta know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away and know when to run." He was talking about cards but those wise words will serve you well here.
4.Look for runners with past festival form, it's a unique test here and horses who run well at previous festivals, do so time and time again.
5.Back a coincidence name if it means something to you, because the formbook can get turned on it's head here. Last year I nailed the Cheltenham Bumper winner because his name was Cheltenian and I had no other view on the race. It won at the very nice odds of 14-1.
6..Enjoy the experience, punting is meant to be fun and can be seriously satisfying if you land a winner, but it's just as important to leave with happy memories.

Anyway heres a few fancies for day one, Tuesday 13th March.

1.30 WILLIAM HILL SUPREME NOVICES HURDLE
Usually there is a short priced favourite here, normally a banker that will get the punters off to a flyer or fill the bookies satchels. However this year is the most open race in years and the two I like are Steps to Freedom and GALLILEO'S CHOICE. The first named is a course and distance winner and looks laid out for this, but hasn't run for 123 days. It may be the plan, but I can't help thinking he would have run at least once this year. Normally horses that have had a cotton wool approach to this meeting have been stuffed. It's a tough place to come and win if your not 110% fit, but his trainer has done it before and he should go close.GALLILEO'S CHOICE was a better rated flat horse than Steps To Freedom and had better form, he once chased home Fame And Glory, the multi Group 1 and Ascot Gold Cup winner. He also nearly landed a Grade 1 race in Ireland on soft ground and the quicker conditions will surely suit this classy sort. He has had a recent run and has the right profile, could be good value at around 8-1.His trainer is a master but has only had 1 festival winner, he is surely due one.


2.05 RACING POST ARKLE CHASE
The dogs and their wives have been barking that Sprinter Sacre is the next Pegasus and it's hard to disagree on what he has shown this season. He has bolted up on the bridle on flatter tracks and does look something special. However he got beat up the hill here last year and is so exuberant he may not get up that hill again.He hasn't jumped a fence around Cheltenham and though he could have jumped this field silly, I can't see him being that far clear of AL FEROF, that that one hasn't at least got a chance of outstaying him up the hill after jumping the last. The fact that the bookie Paddy Power will refund all losing bets if Sprinter Sacre wins gives you hope for AL FEROF as they rarely get it wrong when they take one on. Cousin Vinny, Dunguib & Cue Card were three shorties who were beaten after Paddy Power had took them on. I have been all over this one all season and tipped him up at 10s on Olbg and have backed him each way at 10's,8's,5's and 11-4 so he could make or break my start to this years battle with the bookies. Connections really rate this one and whilst the likes of Peddler's Cross have been scared off by Sprinter Sacre they are not afraid to take him on. Ran a decent race in The Grade 1 Victor Chandler last time against the older and smart Somersby and Finian's Rainbow. Jockey Ruby Walsh gave him a good sighter that day and never knocked him about, so I am sure there is more to come from this one, who can win. Has experience of the Cheltenham fences, has finished 2nd & 1st at the last 2 festivals and is a definite finisher up that hill. Has been punted off the boards and trades at around 5-2, which to me is still a fair price.

2.40 JLT SPECIALITY HANDICAP CHASE
This race is a very competitive handicap and a case can be made for many of these but one that really catches my eye is TULLAMORE DEW. I have backed this one at the last 2 Cheltenham Festivals and he hasn't let me down finishing placed both times. Ran a screamer last time when he nearly reeled in the smart Massini's Maguire to finish a very close 2nd. This 3m 1/2 furlong trip will surely suit and he can stay on again for a place at the very least. Have backed him at 14-1 and he must go close. The final tick in his strong fancy box is whilst in Australia recently, my wife's cousin's husband pulled out a vintage bottle of Tullamore Dew his dad gave him. The bottle apparently dates back from 1968, the year I was born! Had to back him after that!

3.20 STAN JAMES CHAMPION HURDLE
The highlight of day one and this one looks like Hurricane Fly's race to lose. He won so well last year that he looks sure to take this if anywhere near that level again. Has only run once this season and could not have been anymore impressive when landing The Irish Champion Hurdle. Will go off a very short price but deserves to do so. The one doubt I have is that it wasn't a great race last year and he basically beat three stayers in Peddler's Cross, Oscar's Whisky and Thousand Stars. Also big outsider Clerk's Choice was too close up too, so not sure the form is that special. Should win and worth a win bet, but the one who really catches my eye at the prices is ROCK ON RUBY. His trainer really wants to win this race and puts up a strong challenge to the favourite and this one looks his best prospect, in my opinion. I put this one up on Olbg at 20-1 and had a little each way on it then. I backed it again at 14's and again today at 12's. I can't believe he is a bigger price than stablemate Zarkander on a form line through Raya Star (who will go well later in the week). Also nearly caught Binocular last time at Kempton and this return to Cheltenham will surely see him improve and go very close to beating Binocular, who is over half his price.Nearly won The Neptune last year over 2m 5f here at the Cheltenham festival and was dead unlucky to be nutted on the line. That race has always been a decent trial for The Champion Hurdle the following year with past winners Istabraq and Hardy Eustace going on to land the big one as well as 2010 winner Peddler's Cross going close last year.Apart from pushing Binocular close last time ROCK ON RUBY bolted up in the Gerry Fielden at Newbury under a welter burden. Clearly on the upgrade, connections are sweet on him and he should be nearer 6-1 in my book. Might have to back him again!

Hopefully these four will get me off to a decent start and get me in the running for the Olbg tipster prize for the second year in a row.

The rest of the card doesn't really float my boat but these should go well

4.00 GLENFARCLAS CROSS COUNTRY
Last year's winner SIZING AUSTRALIA looks an each way punt to nothing at around 5s.

4.40 OLBG MARES HURDLE
Quevega will win. Chased home hopefully by KELLS BELLE and KENTFORD GREY LADY for each way money.

5.15 PULTENEY LAND INVESTMENTS HANDICAP HURDLE
Too hard for me, will do a Kenny Rogers and go to The Centaur for a pint and a dance!

So there you have it, first day sorted.

Let battle commence

Happy punting

Randy.

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Saturday, 12 November 2011

MY 2011-2012 TOTESPORT TEN TO FOLLOW

The National Hunt season has been underway for some time now but, what has gone before hasn't added up to a hill of beans and the real start is The Paddy Power meeting which has just got underway at the mecca that is Cheltenham and as ever all roads lead to The Festival back there in March. The Totesport Ten To follow kicked off too, which tells you the significance of this meeting,and now the real big guns come out to play. As per usual there are hundreds of lists of ten flying about and as I have entered this comp every single National Hunt season the following ten are the ones all dreams are pinned on. With a guaranteed prize of a cool quarter of a million quid up for grabs and the ten grand prizes along the way, enjoy the ride to all who have entered and please leave your comments.

So here goes, hopefully this ten, some not original but guaranteed heavy points scorers will lead to a healthy profit as well as Cheltenham 2012 Festival Glory.

AL FEROF(left); 6yo Paul Nicholls. This horse has been to the last two Cheltenham festivals finishing 2nd in the Bumper and 1st in the Supreme Novices. All he did in that win in March was stay, and with the switch to fences can come back next year to have a crack at the Arkle.The ability to stay further than the bare 2 miles has always been handy in races like the Arkle and the fact that championship pace suits, he  will develop into a strong contender.Will be intriguing to see how he fares on Sunday and has the likes of Peddlers Cross and Menorah to deal with, but I reckon he'll prove best of the lot.
   
HURRICANE FLY(above); 7yo Willie Mullins. The reigning Champion Hurdler and though there will be plenty of new challengers like Spirit Son, Oscars Wells and The Real Article, they will all have to improve massively to trouble "The Fly". Won with something in hand last March and can mop up the bonus races in Ireland before coming back and defending his title.


DIVERS (left); 7yo Ferdy Murphy. I saw this one win the Centenary at The Festival back in March and with his connections thought straight away, plot up Paddy Power Chase.Trainer Ferdy Murphy produced L'Antartique to do the same double and has a good chance to do it again with Divers. Is a 7yo second season chaser, a course and distance winner with a low weight and looks the ideal sort for the race. Travelled well off the pace back in March before winning, in my opinion, with a bit in hand. Ran a poor race on his seasonal debut at Carlisle, but surely will come on a ton for that and on better ground has a cracking each way chance in The Paddy Power Chase, despite drifting in the market.

FIRST LIEUTENANT;6yo Mouse Morris. Won the Neptune at The Festival and all he did was stay on strongly up the Cheltenham hill. I had backed Rock On Ruby in that race and thought he had it won, but this one, after looking in trouble, roared up the stiff finish and nabbed the prize on the line. Will be the right age in March to be a strong contender for the 3m RSA Chase. Trainer is getting plenty of experience into him and he definitely looks a chaser to follow.

HIDDEN CYCLONE;6yo J.Hanlon. Was only beaten once as a hurdler, finishing a close 3rd in a Grade 1 in Ireland behind First Lieutenant and Zaidpour, and that is smart form. Trainer reckons this one could be a Gold Cup horse of the future and the switch to chasing will surely bring out more improvement. To me, he too could develop into a RSA Chase horse himself.

AITEEN THIRTYTHREE; 7yo Paul Nicholls. This one has Hennessy Gold Cup written all over him and have already backed him at 10-1 for that race. Loves Newbury and with a satisfactory comeback run under his belt behind the smart Somersby, looks to have a big shout back at that track in a couple of weeks. Didn't like Cheltenham in last season's RSA and a flatter track seems to suit better. Could run well at Aintree too.

CAPTAIN CHRIS; 7yo Philip Hobbs. The world is this ones oyster and he has so many options, tripwise. He can go anywhere and win. Seems to prefer right handed tracks and a trip, but still managed to win the Arkle last season and can build on that this year to become a major presence within the chasing division. Could develop into a Gold Cup horse and a run in the King George at Kempton will tell us more. Could even take the Ryanair over 2m5f if connections don't fancy a crack at the big one this season. Should have won on seasonal debut at Exeter this season, but unluckily jockey Richard Johnson unseated, however the leap he made at the last told you he had loads left in the tank.

FINIANS RAINBOW;8yo Nicky Henderson. Lovely big scopy chaser and chased home Captain Chris in last season's Arkle after looking all over the winner at one point. Looks to be a real star in the 2mile Championship races this year and can go well in races like The Tingle Creek at Sandown and the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

The last two, pick themselves as they surely have no peers.

LONG RUN;6yo Nicky Henderson. Won the King George and the greatest Gold Cup I can remember last season and all this as such a young horse. Can win both again this year as his main rivals Kauto Star and Denman are too long in the tooth to trouble him now. If he stays clear of injury he will be at the top of the tree for a long time to come and will end up a "Legend". 

BIG BUCKS; 8yo Paul Nicholls. Legendary status already hangs around this one's neck and all roads lead back to Cheltenham for a crack at The World Hurdle. Will surely win that for the fourth time before either going chasing or coming back for a fifth one. One of my favourites of all time, it is unbelievable to think he is only eight and if he stays sweet will again prove himself unbeatable.

There you have it a fine list of horses and one that will take some beating. Enjoy the season and happy punting.

Randy.